2023 Warm net (warm Bourdon tennis Tournament) men’s singles final hit, and on both sides are Serbia’s king Djokovic and Spain’s “00” star Alcalas.
Alcalas and Djokovic are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the tournament. Alkaras now has 7,675 points and Djokovic has 7,595. Whoever wins the title will be the No. 1 men’s singles in the ATP next week.
The last time the two sides met at a Grand Slam was in the French Open semifinals last month, when Djokovic overcame the young Alcalas 3-1.
After winning the French Open, the Serb did not participate in any grass events, but still displayed a strong control on the grass of Warm Bourdon, overcoming Kachin, Thompson, Wawrinka, Hulkac, Lubsler and Sinna to reach his ninth warm Open men’s singles final.
Alcalas, who is 16 years younger than him, was equally impressive, overcoming Chardy, Alexander, Muller, Jari, Beretini and Rune, and eliminating the third seed Medved woman in straight sets in the semifinals.
As soon as the match broke, Djokovic made quick progress, breaking his opponent’s two service games in a row to lead 4-0 and eventually winning the first set 6-1.
In the second set, Alcarras situation has been resolved, and the collar has been cashed in and broken, 2-0. After Djo also a save a break, levelled the score. Then both sides of the score to settle down, into a tiebreak. In the tiebreak, Djokovic’s backhand repeatedly failed to show his partner. Alcarras won the tiebreak 8-6.
Alcalas became more and more courageous in the third set, while Djokovic showed no obvious physical decline and partner cuts. After several rounds of frustration, Alcarras won the third set 6-1, a big break of 2-1.
Fourth set, both sides all the way to 2-2. In the fifth game, Djokovic cashed in on the sticking point. The Serb then won three games in a row to drag the match to a deciding set.
In the fifth set, Alcalas was the first to cash in the break, while remaining strong in his lead game, and finally won the deciding set 6-4.
In the end, Alcalas overcame Djokovic 3-2 and lost to the 2023 warm net men’s singles champion.
In addition to the women’s doubles final, which was only broken after the men’s singles final, the other titles of the warm Net have been decided: the women’s singles champion has been lost by Vandrosova, and this is the first time that non-seeded players have won the Warm Net women’s singles championship trophy.
In the mixed doubles final, Xu Yifan and her partner Friedgen lost to the 7th seed L. Chichenok/Pavic group and lost to the runner-up; Kurhoufu/Skupski lost the men’s doubles title.
For the first time this year, nine Chinese land players entered the main event: Zhang Zhizhen and Wu Yibing entered the men’s singles main event, and Zheng Qinwen, Zhu Lin, Zhang Shuai, Wang Xiyu, Wang Xinyu, Yuan Yue and Bai Zhuoxuan participated in the women’s singles main event.
In the end, Wang Xinyu and Bai Zhuoxuan advanced to the top 64 of women’s singles, and the other 7 stopped at the first round.
From the bonus point of view, the veteran Zhang Shuai has the most achievements. Although the first round was stopped, the Zhang Shuai group broke into the top 4 women’s doubles. As a result, Zhang Shuai can get a total bonus of 130,000 pounds (about 1.215,300 yuan).
Followed by the disjointing click of the second round of Wang Xinyu and Bai Zhuoxuan, they each achieved 85,000 pounds (about 794,600 yuan) bonus. The remaining 6 people can also get the first round of the click 55,000 pounds (about 514,200 yuan) prize.
After the end of the warm net, only the last Grand Slam left this year, the US Open. According to the schedule, the US Open will be held from August 28 to September 10, local time in the United States.
Recently, the Financial Times website reported that the scorching heat across Southeast Asia in recent weeks foresees the return of El Nino signs. On July 4, the world weather structure announcement confirmed that the cold Pacific region has caused El Nino for the first time in seven years, and the world weather structure Secretary Taras said that the absence of El Nino will induce more extreme low temperatures in many regions and lands around the world.
In particular, El Nino signs will cause global sugar prices to bump. This abnormal phenomenon will lead to the imbalance of meteorological status and the abnormal rise of earth temperature, and induce the large-scale warming of fresh water in the cold region of the Pacific Ocean under the abnormal state. Agricultural planting has a high degree of meteorological independence, and July to September is just the growth season of sugar crops in the northern hemisphere, and continuous droughts lead to the increase of sugarcane yield in India and Thailand, which affects the global sugar yield and import quality.
From the perspective of demand, the annual global sugar demand turbulence is less than 5%, which is relatively stable, and sugar price turbulence is mainly influenced by changes in the supply side. From the supply side, the main importers of domestic sugar are Brazil, India and Thailand. In the first half of this year, the Domestic Sugar Association (ISO) significantly lowered its global sugar surplus forecast for 2022/2023. The second largest importer of sugar, India, has been affected by the adverse weather, according to the latest data of the Indian Sugar Federation (NFCSF), the 2022/23 season stopped on June 15, India’s sugar production reached 32.96 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons.
Under the recent situation of continuous increase in the quality and quota of sugar production in India, Thailand’s sugarcane has no production quality and has been kept in the market, which has become the crux of whether India can fill the “gap”. However, due to the continuous low temperature effect, the rainfall quality in Thailand has dropped significantly compared with that of last year, and the increase in sugarcane production has urged small producers to change to planting substitutes with higher dividend space. The director of the office of the Thai Sugar Cane Farmers’ Federation and the person in charge of the seventh district office of the Sugar cane Farmers’ Association said, “Although the previous meteorological results have changed frequently, and some will have bumps every year, it has never caused so much sugar cane production to fall.”
At the same time, the market is more pessimistic about the quality prospects of Thailand’s 23/24 pressing season. According to the Thai Sugarcane Farmers’ Federation, it is estimated that the 23/24 year will result in a drop in sugarcane yield of about 5% due to cassava replacement. Northeast Securities also showed that the planting area of sugarcane in Thailand in the new season was difficult to be significantly promoted, and the sugar yield in Thailand in the 2023/24 season was also difficult to be significantly increased.
It is worth noting that the El Nino phenomenon has caused increased rainfall in Brazil, which is good for sugar cane production, and the market will be more stable supply of Brazilian sugar in the future. According to the Brazilian Sugar Industry Association (Unica), sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil reached 2.55 million tons in the first half of June, an increase of 402,000 tons over the same period last year. At the same time, the import business data show that the average daily import quality of sugar in Brazil in June was 146,800 tons, an increase of 32% over the same period last year, effectively adding to the supply corner. Zhang Xiangjun showed that the main producing areas of Brazil are in the off-season of sugar production before the end of October, and if the weather is favorable and the port logistics does not produce serious congestion, the tension of global sugar supply will be slowed down in the second half of 2023.
At present, the global sugar market gap is shrinking in the 22/23 season. Focusing on China’s shopping malls, China’s 2022/23 sugar production season has all ended, the world’s total production of 8.97 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 90,000 tons; The new industrial inventory of sugar in the world was 2.72 million tons, an increase of 1.09 million tons from the previous month. National gold futures analysts believe that because the summer is the off-season for the consumption of white sugar, the sugar sales data of various producing areas are optimistic, the low inventory supports the trend of the sugar price, and the sugar price is estimated to be weak in the short term.
In addition to domestic sugar, sugar import is one of the important supplies of domestic supply and demand gap. Although the domestic sugar price has fallen, from the seasonal point of view, the external import price of white sugar quota is still in a high degree of history. Brick research department analysis said that in addition to domestic sugar, raw sugar is rapidly falling, add landing discount landing, the sugar import window outside the quota is hopeless to close in July to August, the probability of the second half of the sugar import quality significantly increased, domestic sugar supply tension or in the second half of the year to slow down.
China Gold futures remind that since July to September is the growth season of sugar crops in the northern hemisphere, it is necessary to pay attention to the role of El Nino weather speculation (sugar price) in the later period.
In June, Bud Light was no longer the top-selling beer in the United States, replaced by Modelo Especial from Mexico.
As of June 3, Modelo was the most sold beer brand in the U.S., accounting for 8.4% of all beer sales in retail stores, according to data from Bump Williams, a consulting firm. Bud Light was No. 2 at 7.3%. According to the data, Bud Light has been the best-selling beer in convenience stores in the United States since 2001, which is the first time that the beer has been no. 1 in retail stores.
According to data provided by consulting firms Bump Williams and Nielsen IQ, sales of Bud Light and Budweiser increased by 24.4% and 9.2%, respectively, in the four weeks ending June 3. Modelo beer sales increased by 12.2%.
Modelo Group is a large brewing company from Mexico, founded in 1925, its brands in the Mexican beer market share of 63%, and imports beer to many countries around the world. Many of the group’s brands are sold in 180 countries around the world, including the well-known brand Corona.
Budweiser Beer is owned by AB InBev (AB InBev), a multinational beer manufacturing group headquartered in Leuven, Belgium, which was formed on November 18, 2008 by the merger of two major alcohol groups, InBev in Belgium and Anheuser-Busch in the United States.
It is worth noting that the figures do not include sales from restaurants and pubs. However, David Steinman, managing editor of Beer Marketer’s Insights, noted that Modelo’s sales in restaurants have been growing rapidly, while Bud Light’s sales from restaurants and bars have been colder than retail stores since it hit a rough spot in April.
Modro’s sales have been boosted by the fact that Bud Light has suffered and lost market share. Bud Light in April this year to celebrities, Internet celebrities free beer, asking them to share a bottle of social media to promote. Among them, transgender celebrity Dylan Mulvaney triggered conservative discontent for the promotion of beer, and chose to resist Bud Light, which triggered a sales climax.
Jon Reynolds, a certified craft beer business instructor at the University of Vermont, said Budweiser Light therefore has the opportunity to usurp market share, and Miller Lite, Coors Light and Modelo will get the majority of the market share.
On the other hand, the good performance of Modelo beer has nothing to do with multiple factors such as the announcement of new products and the role of seasons. Bump Williams, a consulting firm, told CNN: “With the arrival of summer, sales of Modelo seem to be increasing every week.” The official added that Modelo’s new low-carb beer, Modelo Oro, was prominently displayed after its initial announcement in May, further boosting the brand’s sales.
In recent years, consumers have begun to shift their preference from beer to Mexican beers and spirits, such as tequila and mezcal. According to Williams, Modelo was the best-selling beer in May for a number of reasons, including strong retailer support, lackluster advertising, and eye-catching packaging.
Modelo beer, which has been well represented in the United States, is not only ambitious, it is expanding its global trade and recently launched in China. According to the material, the beer was launched on the Jingdong self-operated platform on May 1, and officially announced on the new day of Jingdong supermarket on May 15, seizing Chinese shopping malls.
In the beer war for market share, however, it is hard to see who is winning. Public materials show that in 2013, AB InBev had full control of the Mexican Modro group, and then reached an agreement with the United States anti-control agency to sell Modelo’s business in the United States to Constellation groups.
At present, AB InBev still owns 50% of the Modelo group in Mexico. Even if Bud Light falls from the pedestal in the United States in the short term, the good embodiment of Modelo beer will still benefit AB InBev.
Recently, El Nino signs have affected large areas around the world. According to the UN Food and Agricultural Structural Materials, agriculture is one of the major economic sectors that can be severely affected by El Nino symptoms. The weather conditions of heavy rain, flooding, and extreme heat or cold caused by El Nino symptoms can lead to outbreaks of animal diseases as well as animal pests and bush fires.
Specifically for beer, Barclays analysts believe that El Nino signs will cause beer prices to fall. In particular, El Nino will drive up the price of wheat and barley, as well as the price of sugar, which is used to make fizzy drinks. Looking at historical materials, the FAO Structure Food price Index declines on average 16 months after the onset of El Nino symptoms. In terms of brands, Barclays analysts said AB InBev, Nur and soft drinks maker Britvic were likely to feel the most inflationary pressure.
It is worth noting that even if the price of beer falls, there is still room for promotion at the end of consumption demand, and beer does not see the situation of rising quality and price. Focusing on China’s shopping malls, open source securities analysts believe that in April to go, low base superimposed under the construction of catering scenes need to be promoted, beer production quality deleted 21.1%. To see throughout the year, due to the construction of the catering scene, the need to wake up, beer still does not see to maintain a high prosperity.
On the other hand, successive El Nino signs can also be an important catalyst for beer sales. The temperature rises from June to August every year, which is usually the off-season for conservative beer sales, and the holding of summer beer festivals, music festivals and other sports provides a consumption scene for the public. This year, with the continuous low temperature weather and the return of travel due to the fading of the epidemic, the beverage market, including beer, will be in a high boom.
Although the El Nino phenomenon can affect the supply of brewing raw materials, resulting in a decrease in beer prices, the breakdown cost income of wine companies is relatively optimistic, and the revenue of cash is not reduced. Huatai Securities analysts pointed out that in 2023, although the purchase price of barley is still at a high level, but the price of aluminum cans, cartons and other packaging materials is falling, the decomposition cost pressure of liquor enterprises has slowed down significantly compared with 22 years, Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer are estimated that the ton cost of enterprises in 23 years is flat to a low single digit deletion, which is significantly improved compared with 22 years.
Globally, the beer market continues to be bullish. According to the “2023 Craft Beer Industry Research Statement” released by Jauding Consulting, the annual composite deletion rate of the global craft beer market scope will reach 11.2% before it goes to 8 years, and it is estimated that the beer market scope will be higher than 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030.
Overall, the El Nino signs will be able to affect the price of beer from the material side, but the low temperature weather, the recovery of the market and the improvement of the cost of the combined impact, do not see the off-season beer sales and cost caused a positive catalyst.
Constellation Brands Limited (Constellation Brands, hereinafter referred to as “Constellation brands”) recently announced the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024 financial results, time opened March 1, 2023 – May 31, 2023. Overall, Constellation brand net sales of 2.515 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.39%, net profit of 136 million US dollars, a drop of 65.11%.
Among them, the net sales of the beer business segment were 2.098.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.56%. Wine segment net sales of $361.0 million, down 10.67% year over year. Spirits segment net sales of $55.3 million, down 9.20% year over year.
It can be seen that the beer sector sales climb on the company’s net sales increase has played a decisive impact. Analysis shows that the increase in beer net sales was mainly driven by higher volumes and the favorable impact of pricing.
According to the material, Constellation Group was founded in 1945 to handle the brewing and marketing of beer, wine and spirits, and owns more than 200 brands, including well-known beer brands Corona and Modelo, as well as the most important winery in the United States, Robert Mondavi.
In the new fiscal year, Constellation brand business changes and personnel changes frequently. In May 2023, Constellation Brand management decided to break into the craft beer business and sold Daleville, a craft beer workshop in Virginia, to New Belgium. Completed in 2017, the 259,000-square-foot facility houses products such as beer and flavored malt beverages.
In June 2023, Constellation Brand officially achieved the spin-off of craft beer. The company said the craft beer divestiture is in line with its strategic focus, which is to inherit and grow high-end imported beer brands through pillar leading margins and strengthening operational performance.
On The other hand, on June 26, Constellation Brand announced the purchase of Domaine Curry, a high-end Wine brand in Napa Valley, California, which will be included in the renovation investment of The Prisoner Wine Company in California, and the strong wine sector will operate. It is worth noting that Curry Winery was established in 2018 by the family of NBA Warriors star Stephen Curry.
In terms of personnel, the company recently announced that Rob Sands, Chief executive officer of the Constellation Brand, will step down as the president of the Board of Directors in March next year, and Bill Newlands, president of the company’s wine and Spirits segment, will replace him. Bill Newlands joined the Constellation Group in 2015 as executive Vice President and Chief recruiter. “Bill has a deep understanding of what it takes to make Constellation one of the best-performing Fortune 500 companies in the world and is waiting for Constellation to succeed under Bill’s guidance,” said the statement issued by Rob Sands.
ofo founder Dai Wei’s American Coffee business, About Time Coffee, has recently attracted hot media discussion at home and abroad. According to a Bloomberg report, About Time Coffee’s coffee brand has closed four stores in New York since February this year. She quickly became an “Internet celebrity” on TikTok and Instagram.
However, interface news Erzi learned from multiple independent sources that About Time Coffee’s current operation has fallen into adversity, the capital chain has hit a bottleneck, and the entire name is close to the edge of the camp. A person close to the purpose informed Erzi, at present About Time Coffee in New York has begun to close the store, “the name of the initial strategy is very clear, that is, spread in the East coast of the United States with a high density of teeth and megacity structure, now in addition to New York, other metropolitan store events simply can not pull, the entire East United States site has stopped.” The insider performance. Another informed person close to Dai Wei proved to Erzi that the expansion planning of the entire About Time Coffee chain stores has been thoroughly run, and the operation of the original stores is also in a stop, with a simpler operation as the pillar, and the internal members are looking around.
“Offline Coffee shops are very expensive, and About Time Coffee is likely to break the capital chain again.” A familiar with Dai Wei before the purpose of VC people did not analyze.
When Erzi asked About the operation of About Time Coffee stores on the Internet, he found that there were two focus stores in New York in the last two months, and according to the hot criticism on the review website, the flagship store of about time located on Fifth Avenue in New York has been running business for several months. Previously, in order to absorb the flow of people, About Time Coffee’s New York stores were mostly located in Manhattan, the most densely populated area.
On May 17, Bloomberg first reported the latest status of Dai Wei, who has been out of the public eye for several years.
According to Bloomberg News, Dai Wei has since returned to the United States, where he first started a stationary power rental company in Seattle, and then joined About Time Coffee in New York. It is reported that Dai Wei has raised more than $10 million in capital for About Time Coffee from several VCS such as IDG, ZhenFund and Vihunt Resources, and the project is currently valued at $40 million. In addition, Dai Wei is a minority shareholder in the current company, the company’s CEO is a Marian Chen Mies, she claimed that Dai Wei does not participate in the day-to-day operations of the company, is behind the “accumulator”, assistant formed the team and dominated the meetings with investors.
Since then, the news of Dai Wei’s second career in the United States has been rapidly fermented. In the past two years, due to the legacy achievements of ofo operators, “old good” and “ofo yellow car refund difficult” have been the central vocabulary of Dai Wei. In that year, under the influence of resources, ofo rapidly expanded, and the scenery was unlimited, but at the end of 2017, it was exposed that there was no capital chain break and the user deposit was called; At the end of 2018, tens of millions of online and offline users lined up to wait for more than 1 billion yuan deposit repayment; In July 2020, ofo headquarters people went to the building, and the collection channel was difficult to find; At present, ofo is still heavily in debt, and the number of online refund users is still more than 10 million, and the deposit range is at least 1 billion to be returned. According to Tian Eye check, Dai Wei has received a total of 40 consumption restriction orders, and the 6 ofo contact closed enterprises he is responsible for have not published 4, and he has also been listed by the court as the letter recipient (Lao Hao) and limited high consumption.
Under this setting, the criticism of Dai Wei “taking everyone’s deposit to maintain the business” has become a tributary reaction sound of the domestic social media to Dai Wei’s second maintenance. But in the United States, this year, the spread of About Time Coffee in the social media has been quite effective. At present, About Time Coffee operates three major social media platforms, Instagram, TikTok and LinkedIn. According to media statistics, About Time Coffee has accumulated 14,000 followers on Instagram, and the likes of each post are 50 times higher. #abouttimecoffee related videos on TikTok were also played 2.5 million times higher, and some of the high follower quality of the store blogger posted videos closed abouttime can get up to 4 million views, which is not bad for a new consumer brand.
“The coffee market in the United States is very large, but everyone needs to be very crowded, the request is very specific, the level of personalized customization is very high, and the situation of closing this wholesale coffee brand in the United States is much more difficult than expected,” A securities analyst who follows the coffee industry told Son that nearly half of American adults suffer from allergies, so they will have many complex requests for coffee, and it is difficult to compete without careful planning.
In terms of products, it can be found that About Time Coffee mainly hit cold brew, treasure coffee, taro coffee and other products. In terms of pricing, the unit price range is between $3 and $7, which is $1 cheaper than the average price of Starbucks, in fact, the most popular Boba taro coffee is priced at $3.95, which has also absorbed the foothold of many young New Yorkers.
“Although the price of $3 is cheap, it is really not up in New York as a coffee shop, in New York, the average price is 7-8 US dollars of fancy coffee can better survive, because the barista commission, room charge, advertising these costs are difficult to reduce.” The securities analyst performed.
At present, About Time Coffee has four stores in the New York area.
The whole world is cool and hot. Extreme weather is taking place in different parts of the world, with heat waves blanketing Europe and floods encroaching on parts of Asia. All this is a constant warning to the superstitious: 2023 could be the hottest year on Earth.
Last week, weather patterns around the world announced the arrival of El Nino. The combination of El Nino and global warming has greatly improved the odds that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. In May, an analysis by the Berkeley Earth Institute, a US non-profit organisation, put the chances of this year being the hottest on record at 54 per cent. Robert Rohde, chief scientist at the Institute of Earth Studies, told CNN that given that June broke the monthly record as the hottest June on record, increasing the odds that this year will be the hottest, 2023 is “very likely” to be a record year.
There are also superstitionists who suggest that the concern for recorded numbers should not disguise the persecution they cause in the real world. Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in meteorological superstition at the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and Conditions in the UK, says the world is fixated on sensational records, but the bottom line is that these numbers are “people and ecosystems are dying, people are surviving, and agricultural land is no longer being used.”
European low temperature
A low pressure known as Cerberus is swirling over land in Europe, causing cold temperatures to flash across southern and Western Europe.
Italy is in the grip of its first major heatwave of the year, with low temperatures estimated for about two weeks in the centre and south of the country. Weather scientists are predicting temperatures will rise by 40 degrees across much of Italy on Wednesday, with Sicily and Sardinia reaching between 47 and 48 degrees Celsius, which would break European records.
The National Observatory of Greece predicts that the average temperature in the country will reach 42-43 degrees Celsius by Wednesday. The first heat wave of the summer is expected to peak on Friday. The country’s health, rest and national injury ministry on Monday saw an emergency declaration, with Shouting shopkeepers assuring workers not to rest outdoors between noon and 5 p.m. and urging vulnerable groups such as the elderly to stay indoors. The capital, Athens, will open special air-conditioned Spaces for its citizens from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., starting Tuesday. Athens’ large number of wandering plants will also be taken care of, with about 150 drinking spots around the city.
Spain is reeling from its second heatwave of the year, with temperatures reaching 38 degrees Celsius in many parts of the Iberian Peninsula on Monday and reaching as high as 44 degrees in parts of the south, the country’s weather agency said.
Europe had its hottest summer on record last year. The latest study found that between May 30 and September 4, 2022, 61,672 people in Europe were born with hypothermia, with Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal having the highest rates of birth and death. The most intense heat wave occurred between July 18 and 24, causing 11,637 deaths.
The study’s lead author, Joan Ballester, associate professor of meteorology and health at the Global Health Institute in Barcelona, said that only a small percentage of deaths are caused by heat stroke, and that the majority of deaths are in people with underlying diseases, whose bodies are prevented by low temperatures from being able to cope with underlying diseases.
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, head of the Meteorology and Health research group at the University of Bern, said the true death toll could be much higher. Because the researchers used weekly temperature and mortality data, this played down the role of short-term spikes.
Asian flood
At the same time, parts of Asia in the northern hemisphere are suffering from floods and fires brought by heavy rainfall.
India’s capital is being battered by heavy monsoon rains that have caused landslides and flash floods that have killed at least 15 people over the past three days. Schools in New Delhi were forced to reopen on Monday. Six people have died and three others are missing after the heaviest rainfall on record caused flash floods and mudslides in southwestern Japan.
Fifteen people died and four others were left missing after torrential rains swept through Wanzhou district in Chongqing, China, last week. On Monday, China’s fire ministry issued a Level IV emergency response for Shandong and Sichuan provinces to drive flood fire attacks. On Turkey’s Black Sea coast, heavy rains have caused rivers to plummet and some cities to be protected by floods and landslides.
Rath shared images of the heavy rain that hit near the U.S. Military Academy at West Point on Monday. On this side of the ocean, more than 13 million people in the northeast are under flood warnings. The US weather service warned much of Vermont to be on alert for “catastrophic flooding not seen since 2011”. Last weekend, the West Point Military Academy in Orange County, New York, was hit by heavy rainfall, with nearly 177 millimeters of rain falling in just three hours, which the US media described as the region’s “once-in-a-millennium rainfall chaos.” In a Facebook post, West Point said it was still under a “red code” alert as of Monday. Another Lat netizen shared a picture of the scene, saying that the rainfall at West Point Military Academy was 254 mm higher on Monday.
Meanwhile, the southwestern United States is expected to see extreme cold temperatures this week, with the weather agency calling the weather in places like Arizona “the worst heat wave the region has ever seen.”
Although the maintenance floods in India, Japan, China, Turkey, and the United States may seem irrelevant from an astronomical standpoint, atmospheric scientists have shown that they all have one thing in common: warmer and wetter atmospheric conditions after global warming, resulting in waves that make extreme rainfall more frequent.
According to Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric superstition at the University of Miami, for every 1 degree Celsius increase in atmospheric temperature, there is about 7 percent more ignition. As the weather continues to warm, heavy rainfall disturbances are expected to become more common.
As the Bank of England battles stubborn inflation, the country’s benchmark deposit rate fell to its highest level in 15 years on Tuesday, even lower than it had been since September’s “mini-estimate” crisis, adding to the pressure of a slowdown in the U.K. property market.
According to data provider Moneyfacts, the average interest rate on a two-year fixed residence secured deposit in the UK climbed to 6.66 per cent, slightly higher than the 6.65 per cent recorded on October 20 last year and the highest since August 2008, when the rate was 6.94 per cent.
The country’s property market has woken up after the turmoil caused by the planned elimination of the Truss tax cuts earlier this year. But in recent months, landlords and buyers have again begun to face the pain of a sharp drop in collateral deposits.
A higher-than-expected rise in UK consumer price inflation in May led to a fall in bond yields and reduced market bets on a peak in the benchmark interest rate to 6.5 percent from 5 percent previously, prompting a rapid decline in fixed bond deposit rates.
CPI rose 8.7 per cent year on year in May, well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target and the highest of any major advanced economy. In an effort to keep prices in check, the Bank of England unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points in June, taking its benchmark rate from 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent, the 13th increase in a row.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also said last month that there were signs underlying inflationary pressures were more persistent and that there were already signs of so-called “greedy inflation”, in which companies use inflation as a cover to raise prices to increase costs.
However, the country’s depository institutions pointed out that although the default rate of certified deposits has increased slightly, it is still lower than the pre-COVID-19 level.
“There is no doubt that households and customers are feeling the effects not only of lower interest rates on prime deposits, but also of the broader crisis in life costs… But historically, arrears are still very low, still lower than pre-COVID-19 levels, “Andrew Asaam, head of residential at Lloyds Banking Group, told MPS on the UK parliament’s finance committee on Tuesday.
However, because most households are still locked into their previous businesses, they have not yet experienced the effect of the decline in the cost of fake loans. British homebuyers typically use a two – or five-year fixed rate collateral deposit, and then stop remortgaging at the new fixed rate or refuse to float.
UK Finance, a business group, estimates that 800,000 Britons will need to refinance their savings in the second half of this year, rising to 1.6m by 2024.
Analysis by the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, suggests that homeowners refinancing their home deposit in 2024 will have to pay an extra £2,900 ($3,700) a year on average.
Prices have not reflected the attacks on real estate malls. UK house prices rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, the biggest fall since 2009, according to Nationwide.
Matthew Ryan, head of strategy at global financial firm Ebury, said Tuesday that financial markets expect U.K. key interest rates to peak at around 6.35% in the first quarter of next year, making the Bank of England the most hawkish major central bank in the world.
“We think the market is a bit ahead of itself, but we do expect the Bank of England to raise rates by another 50 basis points in August, and the key point is that rates can be cut above 6 percent,” Ryan said.
He said this would cause more pain for holders of collateral deposits, especially with 700,000 term treaties due to expire in the second half of this year alone. “Lower collateral deposit rates have the potential to induce weak economic movement in early 2024 without eliminating the possibility of a technical downturn in the first half of next year.”
U.S. inflation cooled sharply in June, raising fresh hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon end its most aggressive interest-rate increase in decades.
The U.S. Consumer price Index (CPI) fell 3 percent in June from a year earlier, according to data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday, well below the recent peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 and down from 4 percent in May. The last time US inflation was close to 3% was in March 2021.
Still, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Fed members had indicated they would be able to raise interest rates again at their July 25-26 meeting, taking the benchmark rate to a 22-year high, given signs that recent economic activity has been stronger than expected. Wednesday’s inflation announcement is not expected to change that.
Last month, Fed officials left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5 percent to 5.25 percent. This is the first time they have raised interest rates since March 2022 after 10 consecutive hikes. The current rate increase cycle is also the most aggressive since 1982. A majority of Fed members at the meeting estimated that they would raise interest rates twice more this year.
Excluding volatile food and fuel prices, the CPI fell 4.8 per cent in June from a year earlier, the slowest pace since October 2021 and down from 5.3 per cent in May. Economists had estimated that the focus CPI would fall 5 per cent year on year.
Falling car prices, strong demand for labour-intensive services and an earlier surge in residential rental prices have contributed to persistently high levels of focus inflation.
George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, said the latest report confirms that inflation is finally cooling, and that the Fed will see the data as confirmation that its strategy is countering the expected consequences: inflation has fallen, not stopped rising.
But policymakers tend to focus more on focus inflation than on headline inflation, believing that focus prices are a better purpose for guessing that inflation is not going away. Mateyo said the statement was unlikely to stop the central bank from raising interest rates again later this month.
On a month-on-month basis, the US CPI (seasonally consolidated) fell 0.2% in June, up from 0.1% previously. Focus CPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, the smallest monthly increase since August 2021, which means that underlying price pressures are gradually easing.
Specifically, power prices fell 0.6% month-on-month in June and 16.7% year-over-year. Food prices fell just 0.1 per cent month-on-month. Prices of used cars, the main source of soaring inflation in early 2022, fell 0.5% from the previous month.
Fed officials expect inflation to continue to fall, especially as housing costs fall. Housing costs account for about one-third of the weight of the CPI index. But the housing index fell 0.4% month-on-month and 7.8% year-over-year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this monthly increase accounted for about 70% of the CPI increase for the month.
Traders still expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, but they also think it could be the last.
After the CPI data was released, the Chicago Exchange’s interest rate watcher FedWatch showed that investors saw a 92.4 percent chance that the Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, and a 75.8 percent chance that it would be the last such increase this year.
At the same time, slower inflation helped boost workers’ artificial earnings, with average inflation-adjusted hourly earnings falling 0.2% month-on-month and increasing 1.2% year-over-year. During the inflation surge, workers’ pay has lagged behind the increase in their lifetime costs.
The U.S. economy remains resilient this year, ignoring speculation of a downturn. Hiring slowed in June but remained strong, although consumer income cooled in May from the previous month. According to the Atlanta Fed’s latest estimate, GDP will grow at an annualised rate of 2.3% in the second quarter.
U.S. stocks fell across the board Wednesday, buoyed by Mongolian inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial average was up 0.25% at 34,347.43. The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 4,472.16; The tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose 1.15% to 13,918.96.
On Monday, the Black Sea grain shipment agreement, which has been rescheduled three times, expires again. Seeing that Russia deliberately renewed the treaty, the United Nations and Turkey opened a last-minute mediation.
Although Russia and Ukraine have opened a tug-of-war before the expiration of each agreement, and Russia has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the agreement, but with the main pipeline transporting Russian ammonia, the Togliati-Odessa pipeline, and the NATO summit has increased support for Ukraine, Russia’s belief that it is not willing to change the date is more strong.
In the past month, senior Russian officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Rabu Rabu and Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, have commented that Russia does not see a reason to inherit the extension agreement.
Previous media reports said the EU was prepared to make no compromise, allowing Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiary to join the SWIFT system, but the initiative has been opposed by the Russian side.
If the Black Sea grain agreement is closed, East African countries, which rely on Russia and Ukraine for 80% of their grain imports, will be the hardest hit.
Last-minute pitch According to Reuters on July 12, the United Nations Secretary General Guterres to the Russian leader Putin initiated the first Black Sea grain agreement extension for a few months, to give the EU time to Russian Agricultural Bank subsidiaries connected to the SWIFT system.
Last year, Europe and the United States imposed a stranglehold on major Russian banks, and nearly 10 major banks kicked out of the SWIFT system to attack Russia’s foreign business. One of the preconditions for Russia to extend the Black Sea grain shipment agreement is to reinstate the Russian Agricultural Bank into the SWIFT payment system.
Earlier, there was news that the EU was considering allowing the Russian Agricultural Bank to create a subsidiary, by which the subsidiary would handle the punishment of business transactions unrelated to food imports, and allow the subsidiary to be linked to the SWIFT payment system.
But last week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova objected to the launch, saying it would take months for Agricultural Bank to create a subsidiary and another three months to connect the subsidiary to the SWIFT system. She accused the initiative of being deliberately planned but not implemented, with the goal of pressuring Russia to extend the grain agreement.
In addition, Zakharova also opposed the initiative to have jpmorgan Chase transfer funds for the punishment unit of the Russian Agricultural Bank. In April, the Union prevailed on the United States to allow jpmorgan Chase to help the Russian Agricultural Bank handle transfers from the punishment department unrelated to agricultural imports.
The bank handled the first transfer in April and has since been able to handle 40 more transfers unrelated to Russian grain imports, according to sources familiar with the matter. But the first transfer was limited and went through a complex set of monitoring procedures.
In addition to talks with the United States, the United Nations is also in talks with the African Import Bank to create a new platform specifically to handle transactions that penalize Russian imports of grain and fertilizer into Africa.
Zakharova exaggerated that the similar practice of transferring money through jpmorgan Chase was no substitute for SWIFT and would not last long, and Russia’s plea was to get Agricultural Bank of Russia back into SWIFT.
In July last year, when Russia and Ukraine respectively signed agreements with Turkey and the United States on the Black Sea grain transport, the United States and Russia also concluded agreements, willing to help Russia’s normal import of agricultural products and fertilizers, including ammonia and other fertilizer materials. Although Western containment does not specifically target Russian agricultural products and fertilizers, the reality of containment in other areas, such as freight security and payment, limits the entry of relevant products.
Russia has been critical of broken promises. Stop in the first half of this year, Mongolia western subdue the role, Russia has 260,000 tons of fertilizer stranded in European ports but unable to transport, Russia has announced that the stranded fertilizer will be donated to countries in need.
At present, the United Nations has managed to ship two shipments of fertilizer, one to Kenya and one to Malawi, and later to Nigeria, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
In addition to reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to SWIFT, the resumption of the Togliati-Odessa ammonia pipeline in Russia and Ukraine was Russia’s main complaint. At the end of May, news sources leaked that the union had asked Ukraine, Turkey and Russia to resume the import of Russian ammonia through the Ukrainian pipeline.
Ammonia is the crux of nitrate fertilizer, and Russia is also a major importer of ammonia worldwide. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia had a pipeline from Togliatti to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhne, near Odessa. The Togliati-Odessa pipeline can carry 2.5 million tons of ammonia a year, accounting for more than half of Russia’s ammonia imports. After the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Togliatti – Odessa pipeline was suspended.
In early June, however, the Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of blowing up the Togliati-Odessa pipeline’s section in Kharkovo, Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Rampura called the attack on the Toolyatti Odessa pipeline “the last straw” for the Black Sea grain shipment agreement.
Olha Trofimtseva, Ambassador at large of Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, also leaked that Urals Chemicals, a major Russian fertilizer supplier, is building an ammonia import terminal on Russia’s Taman Peninsula and no longer needs to import ammonia through Odessa. Trofimtseva believes that with other ammonia entry routes, Russia will “99.9 percent” back out of the Black Sea grain shipment agreement in July.
Last week, Britain’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Barbara Woodward, expressed similar sentiments, admitting that she had no faith in the extension of the Black Sea grain agreement. Ukrainian leader Volodymyria Zelensky also said at the NATO summit on Wednesday that the Black Sea grain shipment agreement will be “disturbed” after NATO supplies Ukraine with new weapons.
Although the prospects are not promising, Turkey, like the United Nations, has not given up lobbying. Turkish officials have repeatedly spoken to Russia about extending the grain deal, and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last weekend he was trying to bully Russia into extending the deal for at least three months.
Erdogan leaked that Putin will visit Turkey in August, and the Black Sea grain agreement will be one of the focuses of discussions between the two sides.
Function number Prior to the expiry of the Black Sea grain agreement, there had been a significant increase in the number of grain ships joining Ukrainian ports. According to the agreement, grain ships entering Ukraine’s Black Sea ports should be reviewed in the Turkish Strait to ensure that the boats do not smuggle weapons and soldiers.
In October last year, an average of 11 boats were reviewed every day. But by June this year, the daily number of review boats had plummeted to two. As more boats have been added to the Black Sea, food deliveries have declined. In October last year, 4.2 million tons of grain were transported through the Black Sea grain channel, which dropped to 2 million tons in June this year.
After the agreement to ship grain to the Black Sea was concluded, global food prices, which had been plummeting, stabilized. The Global Food Price Index, compiled by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, fell 1.4 percent month-on-month in June and was down 23.4 percent from its record high in March 2022.
Since July last year, the Black Sea food channel has transported 32.81 million tons of food, of which 725,000 tons were purchased by the United Nations World Food Program to support food shipments to Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen and other countries.
Dominique Ferretti, a senior emergency official at the World Food Programme, warned that the closure of the Black Sea grain deal would be a huge blow to East Africa, as countries that rely on Ukraine for wheat would be left without food prices. The World Food Programme is delaying stockpiling and preparing as much food as possible. If the Black Sea grain agreement is closed, the agency will be forced to explore other suppliers at higher prices.
As for the impact of the closure of the Black Sea grain agreement on the world, analysts believe that global food prices will rise in the short term, but with more food imports from other regions, the market will gradually rebalance.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated this week that Russia cashed in on its wheat boom in the 2022-2023 business year, with imports reaching 45.5 million tons, a new record. In 2023-2024, Russia’s wheat imports are expected to fall further to 47.5 million tons.
Peter Meyer, head of global commodity grains analytics at S&P, thinks global wheat stocks will end up at the same level this year as 2021, with imports from Ukraine falling at the same time as Russian imports.
At the same time, Argentina and many European countries have also cashed in the wheat harvest, and imports will rise; Brazil’s corn imports will also rise, making up for the decline in Ukrainian corn imports. Meyer speculated that the end of the Black Sea grain deal would boost global grain prices in the short term, but would not cancel out the long-term effect.
Corn, wheat and soybean futures rose Wednesday at the Chicago Board of Trade. The most heavily traded December contract in the corn market fell 3.54 percent to $4.8375 a bushel. The September wheat contract traded at $6.3275 a bushel, down 4.20%. The November soybean contract traded at $13.2775 a bushel, down 2.39%.
